> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://globalfeed.ai/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Anthropic modeled AI's 2030 economy: enter your guess, see the outcome - URL: https://globalfeed.ai/en/anthropic-modeled-ais-2030-economy-enter-your-guess-see-the-outcome/ - Published: 2026-09-09T18:14:34.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-09T18:14:34.000Z - Description: Anthropic's economics team has published a tool that calculates how AI might affect growth and wages through 2030. Across three scenarios US output rises 1.6%, 8.3% or 32.4%. In the extreme case labour's share falls from 60% to 45.2%. - Author: GlobalFeed Editor - Tags: Anthropic, economics, AI economy, O*NET, x-AnthropicAI, dil-en, elle, video **Anthropic**'s economics team has published a model of how AI might affect growth, wages and employment through 2030\. It is not a report but **a tool you run**: you set five dials with your own assumptions, the outcome appears on screen, and it sits next to the answers of more than 10,000 Americans. ## Three scenarios Anthropic has worked out three end points itself. Without AI, US gross domestic product in 2030 would be **$33.5 trillion**; the scenarios stack on top of that. - **Modest:** AI has roughly the impact the internet did. Output rises **1.6%** to $34.1 trillion. Labour's share slips from 60% to 59.4%, which is barely a move at all. - **Substantial:** AI can do half of all knowledge work by 2030, most of it on its own, but adoption stays incomplete. Output rises **8.3%** to $36.3 trillion, about double the normal growth rate. Labour's share is 56.1%. Pay for knowledge workers is essentially flat. - **Extreme:** AI is more productive than humans at the vast majority of knowledge-work tasks, spreads fast, and improves itself. Output rises **32.4%** to $44.4 trillion, growth of 15% a year. Labour's share falls from 60% to **45.2%**, and capital takes the 15 points in between. Knowledge-worker wages drop by more than 10% and unemployment goes past typical recession levels. The striking figure is not the growth rate but **who the growth goes to**. In the extreme case the economy expands by a third while labour's share of it shrinks. Record output and falling pay appear in the same column. ## What the model actually counts The model treats jobs not as occupations but as **bundles of tasks**, built on the US Department of Labor's O\*NET taxonomy. AI can do one of four things to a task: - **Leave it alone.** Some tasks stay human, such as bathing a patient. - **Augment it.** A person does the same work faster or better. - **Automate it.** The task gets finished without a person. - **Create new ones.** What technology has historically done. As the bundle changes, the job changes with it, and so do productivity and demand for labour. ## The five questions you answer Running the tool means setting five dials yourself: **what share of tasks** AI can perform, **how widely** it is used across the economy, how much of the work it does **autonomously**, **how many times** more productive it makes a worker (1.5x to 10x), and **how long** a displaced worker takes to find new work (one to two months, out to more than three years). Five answers, one curve. ## What 10,000 Americans said Anthropic put the same questions to **more than 10,000 Americans** through Morning Consult. The median set of answers lands near the substantial scenario: output in 2030 about 10% higher than it would have been without AI, unemployment around 5%. Roughly **10% of respondents expect the extreme case**. ## Anthropic's own caveat The company states plainly that the model is a stark simplification of a complex reality. Left out: policy responses, business cycles, aggregate demand and financial market disruptions, catastrophic risks, highly capable robots, and the demand effects of the data centre buildout. Tracking is at a coarse occupational level, not per worker. In Anthropic's words, actual outcomes may differ materially. Co-founder **Jack Clark** told NPR that the technology will keep developing quickly but that **diffusion will be harder than people expect**. **Anton Korinek**, who heads the company's work on transformative AI economics, makes the same point from the other side: AI that nobody uses has no economic effect, however capable it is. ## What this actually is Most AI companies either stay quiet on economic impact or offer a single optimistic number. What is different here is that the company building the model **also calculated and published the scenario where wages fall**, and handed the assumptions to the reader. It moves the argument from whether this happens to which assumptions you hold, which is where the real disagreement was all along. Sources: [Anthropic scenario explorer](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios?ref=globalfeed.ai), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/09/nx-s1-5961443/ai-anthropic-economy?ref=globalfeed.ai).